While California Dreams: February 2008 Archives

A weekly update on the goings-on in Sacramento

For the week ending February 23, 2008

Key bills and issues we've been following during the

Past week and beyond

Bill deadlines, budget cuts, Assembly leadership struggles and ever-increasing bad news on the State's burgeoning deficit are the hallmarks of this week's update. Simply put: The news continues to be dreary.

The leadership vacuum in the Assembly has yet to be resolved, although the Dems have agreed that there will be no transfer of power until after the budget is finalized so that the four-time budget negotiator Fabian Nunez will be able to represent the lower house in the budget negotiations, rather than a newer and more untested replacement. With that deal made (and assuming it isn't broken), the rest of the battle continues. It's still pretty much inside baseball. Most of those who are watching Sacramento at all are interested in whether there will be significant cuts in programs in which they are personally or professionally involved. For those interested in this leadership power play, Dan Walters in the Sac Bee this week has a summary handicapping several of the key players. And while the game of palace intrigue continues, the legislature has started to address the real challenges of major budget decisions and legislative priorities for this, the second half of the legislative session.

On the Republican side, the new Senate Minority Leader has been chosen. Modesto Senator Dave Cogdill, a hard-liner who boasts of his anti-choice, anti-gay, "A" rating from the NRA, among other right-wing litmus tests, states his position on a balanced approach to dealing with the budget shortfall: "If we raise taxes, it's like throwing an anchor to a drowning man." This will certainly make for an interesting budget debate this year. For more on who will be representing the Republican point of view in the Senate this coming year please click here.

If you like the work we've been doing at Speak Out California, with our regular weekly updates which provide inside commentary and analysis on what is going on in our state capital, we hope you'll support our work by making a contribution to Speak Out California. To contribute, just click here for our website so we can keep providing this unique and important perspective on our state and its future.

Just click here for our website to support our work in keeping California's progressive voice strong!

A weekly update on the goings-on in Sacramento

For the week ending February 16, 2008

Key bills and issues we've been following during the

Past week and beyond

With the presidential primaries focused on other states and the Term-Limits initiative dead and gone, Sacramento has returned to "normal", with small matters like the budget and legislative leadership supplanting the posturing and promoting that naturally accompanies electoral politicking. However, with the huge vacuum in Sacramento leadership created by the failure of Prop. 93, politicking has, instead, gone into over-drive. Don Perata and Fabian Nunez are now officially lame-duck leaders. In the world of power and leadership, this situation befits the old adage, "The King is dead, long live the King", meaning those seeking the crowns of leadership haven't even waited for the bodies to get cold before scurrying to pick up the scepter.

The fallout from Prop 93's failure has been quite different in the Senate and Assembly. The Senate quickly filled the power void by announcing that Darrell Steinberg would replace current President Pro Tem Don Perata, most likely in August after the budget is completed. The transfer of power will be smooth and dignified. "Good guy" Darrell Steinberg's big job now is to persuade the political pundits that he's not quite so nice and thus capable of doing the heavy-lifting required of the position. After all the mud that has been slung at the current senate leadership, this is an enviable "problem" to be sure.

In the lower house, an entirely different story emerges. While Fabian Nunez has apparently secured his control until after the budget battle, the internal battle over who will succeed him has taken on an entirely different and new dynamic. With no clear successor and no timeline for that succession, the battle has taken on both a full-blown and public persona. Several assemblymembers have announced their candidacies and done so with press releases and even blogger interviews, along with traditional mainstream interviews and events.

In the past, the battle for internal control over leadership has taken place in relative private, with self-selected candidates going member to member to shore up support. This has traditionally been about relationships and a determination as to which emerging candidate can best fill the primary functions of a speaker which are to raise money and protect his/her majority in upcoming elections. With pretty much all of tradition and history thrown out with term-limits, the face of this process has changed dramatically, and the battle has become both public and highly politicized. While all this makes for great copy, just how this improves the process has yet to be seen. Currently there are at least six to nine announced candidates for the position, with no one having a straight shot to the title at this moment. This will be interesting to watch as the rest of the "conventional wisdom" about who, why and how the speaker is chosen will be up-for-grabs as well. While arguably historic in its unique selection process, it may also signal the selection of the first woman speaker in our state's history. More on this as it evolves.

If you like the work we've been doing at Speak Out California, with our regular weekly updates which provide inside commentary and analysis on what is going on in our state capital, we hope you'll support our work by making a contribution to Speak Out California. To contribute, just click here for our website so we can keep providing this unique and important perspective on our state and its future.

Just click here for our website to support our work in keeping California's progressive voice strong!

A weekly update on the goings-on in Sacramento

For the week ending February 9, 2008

Key bills and issues we've been following during the

Past week and beyond

With Super Tuesday all but a dim memory in the fast-paced world of Presidential campaign politics, Speak Out California will try to provide a summary of what happened, why and what it means for the near future of our state and nation. While such prognostications are often supplanted within days as the "conventional wisdom" shifts with each passing event and hour, we think there are enough interesting tidbits to provide at least some kind of guideline for the historic election we have just witnessed in our state.

If you like the work we've been doing at Speak Out California, with our regular weekly updates which provide inside commentary and analysis on what is going on in our state capital, we hope you'll support our work by making a contribution to Speak Out California. To contribute, just click here for our website so we can keep providing this unique and important perspective on our state and its future.

At Speak Out California we provide the facts and the commentary that keeps you informed on what is really happening in our state. We don't accept any advertising or corporate sponsorships, so you know that we are not beholden to any group or special interest. Our commitment is simply to provide uncompromising reporting and analysis of what is happening in our state from the progressive perspective.

If you can pledge $10, $25, $50 a month, or send us a one-time contribution, we can continue to keep you in-the-know and keep the progressive voice alive and growing in California.

Just click here for our website to support our work in keeping California's progressive voice strong!

So just what did the California electorate have to say this past week?

Remembering that we moved our primary election up to be "relevant" in the presidential selection process, it is somewhat ironic that the results of "Super Tuesday" have not clarified the race much at all. With Hillary Clinton taking the grand prize of California by an impressive 10% margin, having received 52% of the votes cast to Barack Obama's 42.4%, the candidates are still neck-and-neck in the all-important delegate count heading into the August convention, where the final candidate selection will take place.

What was striking to many of us watching the polls up to election day was the size of Clinton's win. With Obama clearly gaining momentum and reducing what had once been a 35% margin for Clinton, the press would have had us believe that Obama might even score a huge upset victory in California and all but sew up the election battle. As major endorsements came in from the famous and glamorous, racking up big media coverage for Barack, he seemed almost unstoppable. Oprah, Maria Shriver, Ted and Caroline Kennedy came to UCLA for a boisterous rally which was well-covered throughout the national press. University students came out en masse. Clearly, Obama was gaining traction in the Bay area, in coastal districts and with our young voters. So just exactly how did this all turnout at the end? We may not know for awhile actually, since there are estimates that over one million ballots that have yet to be processed. It is unclear how many will actually be counted and the outcome will not be affected, since some are provisional ballots of questionable validity.

For a full count of results, the best place to look is the Secretary of State's website here. Included are all the results from both parties- Clinton for the Dems and McCain for the Reps. One of the more interesting statistics is just the sheer numbers of votes cast in the Democratic primary (over 4.3 million to the Reps 2.5 million ballots). Keeping in mind that independent voters were allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, but the Reps would not allow them to vote in their "closed" primary, there were still over 1.7 million more votes cast in the Democratic race. We don't know if this portends anything in November's general election, but it's a pretty good bet that many of those voters will stick with the candidate they voted for in the primary -- a sort of loyalty element that can become a factor in an election. If that theory does hold, it's a pretty sure bet that California will continue its "blue" ways and put 55 big electoral votes on the Democratic side. Of course, politics is nothing if not fluid, so don't go to the bank on that one yet...

Some of the more interesting, albeit wonky discussion on the outcome of the California primary revolves around the various voting blocks -- Hillary handily took the female vote (according to CNN's exit polls) with 59% of women voting for her and 34% voting for Obama. She also took the large Latino vote (which represented 30% of the Democratic voters) by 2-1. Barack cleaned up with the white 18-29 year old vote at just about 2-1 and the African-American vote by an even larger percentage.

An interesting and slightly different take on the results has been opined by Joe Mathews of the LA Times. While many of us have scoured the obvious demographics such as gender, age, ethnicity, etc., Joe examined the presidential primary results from the geographic perspective. His theory is that Barack may have carried the wealthy coastal areas, but Hillary scored big in California's "heartland". Click here for his interesting analysis in this LA Times article.

The real winner in all this, though, is the enormous increase in voter registration and voter participation this year. Whether it's the excitement of a new generational leader emerging or the chance of electing the first woman, there is no doubt that more people, particularly first-time voters, are paying attention and participating in the electoral process. This is great news, no matter what the outcome. And for Dems, it's particularly interesting to note that new voter registration far outweighed those signing up on the Rep side. For those of us desperate to see new leadership and new ideas in Washington, this kind of groundswell can only be a good thing.

So, after all the hoopla, where does the Presidential election stand? We know for the Reps that John McCain has emerged from what appeared to be certain extinction to be the all-but-selected Republican nominee. The story on the Dem side is far from clear, however. For a current scorecard on the all-important delegate count, click here for CNN's report.

How the ballot measures fared?

There were really no surprises here, as the polling and pundits called this portion of the election pretty accurately, although the numbers weren't quite as some of the later polls had predicted.

Props 91 and 92: While having little in common in terms of subject matter, both went down to clear defeat with 41 and 42% of the vote respectively. Prop 91, dealing with transportation funding had lost the support of its sponsors. In spite of having no organized support, it still managed to get 41% of the vote. While Prop 92, which would have clarified Community College funding, had a campaign and some support, it was able to generate only 1% point more than the transportation measure without support. The poor showing of the measure might create some ominous consequences in the coming budget fight. With such poor public support, the failure of Prop 92 could be interpreted to mean that the community colleges don't have much political juice when it comes to protection in these very difficult budget negotiations.

Prop 93: The interesting aspect for political wonks was the closeness of Prop 93's defeat. Although it lost convincingly, at 53% in opposition to 47% in support of the proposed term-limits revision, the Field Poll released just days before the election found it at only 33% popularity. A loss is a loss, of course, and as a result both Fabian Nunez and Don Perata will be out of the Legislature in January 2009. But the question is: how did such a respected pollster come up so off in his prediction on that measure? We really haven't gotten much in the way of explanation, so it's purely conjecture at this point. The reality is, though, that Sacramento has already been in overdrive to replace the fallen leadership. In keeping with the old adage, "The King is dead, long live the King!" the Senate has already announced the selection of well-respected nice-guy Darrell Steinberg as Perata's replacement at the end of the legislative year. On the Assembly side, the positioning is well underway to replace Nunez, who has taken responsibility for Prop 93's loss. A vote of the Assembly membership is already set for March 11th if one candidate emerges with enough support to take the crown as Speaker.

With term limits reform now off the table, the scuttlebutt is that it will only reemerge if it is coupled with redistricting reform. Ever-ready for reform, Governor Schwarzenegger has announced he will support a redistricting reform initiative if it qualifies for the ballot. Although it's now too late for the 42 members of the Legislature who will term-out in November, California needs an honest and rational discussion of the entire term limits concept without fancy bells and whistles and self-interest that have distracted us from having this most important discussion.

Props 94-97: As predicted, the Indian gaming measures overwhelmed the rest of the ballot in terms of money spent. The compacts were approved by large margins, with the tribes standing to benefit spending approximately $22 for each yes vote. A staggering $80 million went into the winning side on this, but the expected return for each winning tribe is expected to make the investment more than worthwhile. What the state will benefit from these compacts is yet to be determined, but clearly the promise of assistance in these difficult budget times was a forceful and compelling draw for many who voted "yes" to confirm the deals approved by the Legislature and Governor last year.

Local money measures

One of the more interesting results of the February 5th election is the number of new tax measures that passed throughout the state. While many went down to defeat, with the often insurmountable 2/3 requirement, a surprising number of measures found success this year. With new and younger voters adding to the rolls, this may be the time that other such measures emerge for voter consideration in November. For more on this story, click here for the LA Times piece.

The Rest of the Story

Our blogging offerings for the week:

Primary Election Day--

Still Counting

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Until next week,

Hannah-Beth Jackson and the Speak Out California Team

A weekly update on the goings-on in Sacramento

For the week ending February 2, 2008

Key bills and issues we've been following during the

Past week and beyond

Like most of you, we here at Speak Out California have been following the Presidential election campaign very closely. We hope you've looked at our Voter Guide for guidance on the ballot measures that are also on the ballot this Tuesday. (Click here for that information).

If you like the work we've been doing at Speak Out California, with our regular weekly updates which provide inside commentary and analysis on what is going on in our state capital, we hope you'll support our work by making a contribution to Speak Out California. To contribute, just click here for our website so we can keep providing this unique and important perspective on our state and its future.

Just click here for our website to support our work in keeping California's progressive voice strong!

In keeping with the importance of the coming election, this update is not our typical analysis of what has been going on in Sacramento. Until now, we haven't gotten directly involved in the exciting and exhilarating Presidential campaign that will garner large numbers of important delegate votes that the remaining candidates will need going into what might very well be a brokered national convention later this summer in Denver, Colorado.

Since the Republicans can't even pretend to have a progressive candidate on their slate, with each of their top-tier candidates emphasizing their so-called "pro-life" pro-war records, we won't be referring to their beauty contest in our comments at all. They can't seem to be running right hard enough to please themselves. This is not the America we want or need. It is devoid of the values and elements that have made our country great--vision, hope and opportunity. We will, however, remember their platforms and promises in the general election, lest we start forgetting who they really are and claim to be.

Like so many of you, we've been impressed by both Democratic candidates that are left standing as we head into "Super Tuesday". There are only two now, after at least eight interesting and well-qualified candidates first threw their proverbial hats in the ring. For many, there is disappointment that their candidate did not catch fire and withdrew from the debate. For John Edwards supporters, in particular, it was a stinging disappointment when he dropped out this past week, leaving only two U.S. Senators to finish the race. But the country is stronger for their various positions and qualities. There is hope that we can turn our country around and proof that there are still fine leaders willing to step forward and offer their vision of the future to the American People.

While Speak Out California has watched each of the candidates articulate his/her vision for the future, we know that the party is quite divided between the two remaining candidates. Hillary Clinton represents an array of experience and knowledge about how the system truly operates. She has articulated with clear and impressive understanding, what needs to be done to return America to its greatness, a position that has been both squandered and recklessly destroyed by the current Bush administration. She perhaps sums up her candidacy best by her remark at the recent debate, "It took a Clinton to clean up the first Bush mess and it will take a Clinton to clean up the second Bush mess."

Barack Obama represents the next generation of political leaders. While articulate and motivational, he sounds similar themes to those of his colleague and opponent. At the same time he has captured the imagination of a generation and roused them to political interest and action unseen in many years. In his stirring Convention speech of 2004 he defined his vision with the statement, " We are not Blue States or Red States, we are the United States."

It is unclear who will be the winner on Tuesday. Most pundits believe there will be no clear winner--that both will amass a large number of delegates for the final battle for the nomination at the Democratic Convention in late August. The talk on Tuesday and beyond will no longer be about who won which state, but how many delegates he or she will take from each.

Regardless of which candidate ultimately emerges, the victor will be making history as the first of either his race or her gender to be the nominee for President of the United States. It is truly a groundbreaking moment in which all can be proud. So, who will it be? Who is the best candidate? Which one can win in November and take our country back for the working people and the future?

Many of you have asked us who we endorse. From a progressive's perspective, both candidates have positives and negatives and either one would be an enormous improvement over where we are today as a nation. We suspect you've seen lots of opinion letters by all sorts of people including endorsements for each of the candidates from the familiar pundits and politicians as well as spin and analysis from the major papers and supporters. What Speak Out California has done, instead, is provide you with the thinking of two women who have been long-time California activists committed to advancing progressive causes and candidates. They have agreed to share their reasons for supporting their respective choices for President. We present them to you (in alphabetical order of candidate's last name). Please note that we also welcome any comments or opinions you may have as well…..and would appreciate your posting them on our weblog so they can be shared with our readers .